Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings

19 Dec 2019 (PT)
OSCAR

These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions from screenings, publicly available information release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues, historical considerations how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated, precursor awards some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others and consultations with industry insiders including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters. Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings

Best Picture

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
'Knives Out'
Claire Folger
FRONTRUNNERS

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Sony
The Irishman Netflix
Parasite Neon
Marriage Story Netflix
1917 Universal
Jojo Rabbit Fox Searchlight
Joker Warner Bros.
Ford v Ferrari Fox
The Two Popes Netflix
Knives Out Lionsgate

MAJOR THREATS

Pain and Glory Sony Classics
A Hidden Life Fox Searchlight
Uncut Gems A24
Little Women Sony
Just Mercy Warner Bros.
The Farewell A24
Rocketman Paramount

POSSIBILITIES

Bombshell Lionsgate
Waves A24
Honey Boy Amazon
Richard Jewell Warner Bros.
Dolemite Is My Name Netflix
Harriet Focus
Downton Abbey Focus

Best Director

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
Taika Waititi, right, directing 'Jojo Rabbit'
Kimberley French/Twentieth Century Fox
FRONTRUNNERS

Quentin Tarantino Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese The Irishman
Bong Joon Ho Parasite
Sam Mendes 1917
Noah Baumbach Marriage Story

MAJOR THREATS

Todd Phillips Joker
James Mangold Ford v Ferrari
Taika Waititi Jojo Rabbit
Pedro Almodovar Pain and Glory
Fernando Meirelles The Two Popes
Greta Gerwig Little Women — podcast
Lulu Wang The Farewell — podcast

POSSIBILITIES

Terrence Malick A Hidden Life
Clint Eastwood Richard Jewell
Jay Roach Bombshell
Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie Uncut Gems
Rian Johnson Knives Out
Alma Har'el Honey Boy
Trey Edward Shults Waves

Best Actor

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
Paul Wer Hauser in 'Richard Jewell'
Warner Bros. Pictures
FRONTRUNNERS

Joaquin Phoenix Joker
Adam Driver Marriage Story — podcast
Leonardo DiCaprio Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jonathan Pryce The Two Popes — podcast
Robert De Niro The Irishman — podcast

MAJOR THREATS

Antonio Banderas Pain and Glory
Taron Egerton Rocketman
Christian Bale Ford v Ferrari
Eddie Murphy Dolemite Is My Name — podcast
Adam Sandler Uncut Gems
Paul Wer Hauser Richard Jewell
George MacKay 1917

POSSIBILITIES

Michael B. Jordan Just Mercy — podcast
Edward Norton Motherless Brooklyn
Matt Damon Ford v Ferrari
Daniel Craig Knives Out
Mark Ruffalo Dark Waters
Roman Griffin Davis Jojo Rabbit

Best Actress

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
Scarlett Johansson in 'Marriage Story'
Courtesy of Netflix
FRONTRUNNERS

Renee Zellweger Judy — podcast
Charlize Theron Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson Marriage Story
Cynthia Erivo Harriet
Lupita Nyong'o Us — podcast

MAJOR THREATS

Awkwafina The Farewell — podcast
Saoirse Ronan Little Women — podcast
Alfre Woodard Clemency

POSSIBILITIES

Ana de Armas Knives Out
Florence Pugh Midsommar
Valerie Pachner A Hidden Life
Elisabeth Moss Her Smell — podcast

Best Supporting Actor

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
Anthony Hopkins in 'The Two Popes'
Peter Mountain
FRONTRUNNERS

Brad Pitt Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Al Pacino The Irishman — podcast
Joe Pesci The Irishman
Tom Hanks A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood — podcast 2018 & podcast 2019
Anthony Hopkins The Two Popes

MAJOR THREATS

Jamie Foxx Just Mercy
Alan Alda Marriage Story
Willem Dafoe The Lighthouse — podcast
Shia LaBeouf Honey Boy
Dean-Charles Chapman 1917
Taika Waititi Jojo Rabbit

POSSIBILITIES

Tracy Letts Ford v Ferrari
Sterling K. Brown Waves — podcast
Song Kang-ho Parasite
Sam Rockwell Richard Jewell — podcast
John Lithgow Bombshell
Wesley Snipes Dolemite Is My Name

Best Supporting Actress

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
Nicole Kidman in 'Bombshell'
Courtesy of Hilary Bronwyn Gayle SMPSP
FRONTRUNNERS

Laura Dern Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez Hustlers — podcast
Scarlett Johansson Jojo Rabbit
Margot Robbie Bombshell — podcast
Nicole Kidman Bombshell — podcast

MAJOR THREATS

Thomasin McKenzie Jojo Rabbit — podcast
Annette Bening The Report
Kathy Bates Richard Jewell
Shuzhen Zhao The Farewell
Florence Pugh Little Women

POSSIBILITIES

Julia Butters Once Upon a Time in Hollywood — podcast
Maggie Smith Downton Abbey
Taylor Russell Waves
Margot Robbie Once Upon a Time in Hollywood — podcast
Lauren 'Lolo' Spencer Give Me Liberty

Best Adapted Screenplay

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
'Dark Waters'
Courtesy of: Focus Features
FRONTRUNNERS

The Irishman Steven Zaillian
Jojo Rabbit Taika Waititi
The Two Popes Anthony McCarten
Little Women Greta Gerwig — podcast
Joker Todd Phillips & Scott Silver

MAJOR THREATS

Dark Waters Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa
Just Mercy Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham
Hustlers Lorene Scafaria
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster

POSSIBILITIES

Motherless Brooklyn Edward Norton
Richard Jewell Billy Ray
Downton Abbey Julian Fellowes — podcast
Toy Story 4 Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton

Best Original Screenplay

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
'The Last Black Man in San Francisco'
Courtesy of Disney/Pixar
FRONTRUNNERS

Parasite Bong Joon Ho & Jin Won Han
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Quentin Tarantino
Marriage Story Noah Baumbach
Knives Out Rian Johnson
The FarewellLulu Wang — podcast

MAJOR THREATS

Ford v Ferrari Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller
1917 Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Bombshell Charles Randolph
Honey Boy Shia LaBeouf — podcast
Dolemite Is My Name Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski
Booksmart Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman
The Last Black Man in San Francisco Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot
Pain and Glory Pedro Almodovar — podcast Almodovar

POSSIBILITIES

A Hidden Life Terrence Malick
Waves Trey Edward Shults
Uncut Gems Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie
Us Jordan Peele — podcast Peele
The Lighthouse Max Eggers & Robert Eggers
Queen & Slim Lena Waithe — podcast
The Report Scott Z. Burns

Best Animated Feature

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
'Weathering with You'
Courtesy of GKIDS
FRONTRUNNERS

Toy Story 4 Pixar
Frozen 2 Disney
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Dreamworks
I Lost My Body Netflix
Klaus Netflix

MAJOR THREATS

Missing Link United Artists Releasing
Funan GKIDS
Weathering With You GKIDS

POSSIBILITIES

Abominable Universal
The Secret Life of Pets 2 Universal
The Angry Birds Movie 2 Sony Pictures Releasing

Best Documentary Feature

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
'Midnight Family'
Courtesy of Sundance Film Festival
FRONTRUNNERS

American Factory Netflix
For Sama PBS
One Child Nation Amazon
Apollo 11 Neon
The Biggest Little Farm Neon

MAJOR THREATS REST OF SHORTLIST

Midnight Family 1091 Media
The Edge of Democracy Netflix
Advocate Film Movement
The Cave National Geographic
Knock Down the House Netflix
Maiden Sony Classics
Honeyland Neon
The Apollo HBO
Aquarela Sony Classics
The Great Hack Netflix

Best International Feature

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
'Those Who Remained'
Telluride Film Festival
FRONTRUNNERS

Parasite South Korea
Pain and Glory Spain
Les Miserables France
Corpus Christi Poland
Those Who Remained Hungary

MAJOR THREATS REST OF SHORTLIST

Atlantics Senegal
Honeyland North Macedonia
Beanpole Russia
The Painted Bird Czech Republic
Truth and Justice Estonia

Best Cinematography

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
Roger Deakins on the set of '1917'
François Duhamel/Universal Pictures and DreamWorks Pictures
FRONTRUNNERS

1917 Roger Deakins
Joker Lawrence Sher
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Robert Richardson
The Irishman Rodrigo Prieto
Ford v Ferrari Phedon Papamichael

MAJOR THREATS

The Lighthouse Jarin Blaschke
The Two Popes Cesar Charlone
Marriage Story Robbie Ryan
Parasite Hong Kyung-Po
Little Women Yorick Le Saux
A Hidden Life Jörg Widmer

POSSIBILITIES

Bombshell Barry Ackroyd
Uncut Gems Darius Khondji
Jojo Rabbit Mihai Mălaimare Jr.
Waves Drew Daniels
The Lion King Caleb Deschanel
Avengers: Endgame Trent Oplach

LONG SHOTS

The Aeronauts George Steel
Harriet John Toll
Dark WatersEd Lachman
Rocketman George Richmond
Ad Astra Hoyte van Hoytema
Gemini Man Dion Beebe

Best Film Editing

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
'Apollo 11'
FRONTRUNNERS

Ford v Ferrari Andrew Buckland & Michael McCusker
The Irishman Thelma Schoonmaker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Fred Raskin
Joker Jeff Groth
Parasite Jinmo Yang

MAJOR THREATS

Marriage Story Jennifer Lame
Jojo Rabbit Tom Eagles
Apollo 11 Todd Douglas Miller
Uncut Gems Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Maryann Brandon & Stefan Grube
1917 Lee Smith
Bombshell Jon Poll
Rocketman Chris Dickens

POSSIBILITIES

Avengers: Endgame Jeffrey Ford & Matthew Schmidt
Little Women Nick Houy
Knives Out Bob Ducsay
Richard Jewell Joel Cox
Just Mercy Nat Sanders
The FarewellMatt Friedman & Michael Taylor
Dolemite Is My Name Billy Fox
A Hidden Life Rehman Nizar Ali, Joe Gleason & Sebastian Jones

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
'Judy'
Roadside Attractions/Pathé Productions
FRONTRUNNERS

Bombshell
Judy
Rocketman
Joker
Dolemite Is My Name

MAJOR THREATS REST OF SHORTLIST

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1917
Downton Abbey

Best Original Score

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
'Ford v Ferrari'
Merrick Morton/Twentieth Century Fox
FRONTRUNNERS

1917 Thomas Newman
Marriage Story Randy Newman
Little Women Alexandre Desplat
Ford v Ferrari Marco Beltrami
Joker Hildur Guðnadóttir

MAJOR THREATS REST OF SHORTLIST

Motherless Brooklyn Daniel Pemberton
Jojo Rabbit Michael Giacchino
The King Nicholas Britell
Avengers: Endgame Alan Silvestri
Pain and Glory Alberto Iglesias
Us Michael Abels
Bombshell Theodore Shapiro
The Farewell Alex Weston
Frozen 2 Christophe Beck

Best Original Song

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
'Breakthrough'
Courtesy of Twentieth Century Fox
FRONTRUNNERS

"I'm Gonna Love Me Again" Rocketman — Elton John & Bernie Taupin
"Spirit" The Lion King — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter, Timothy McKenzie & Ilya Salmanzadeh
"Glasgow No Place Like Home" Wild Rose — Caitlyn Smith, Mary Steenburgen & Kate York
"Into the Unknown" Frozen 2 — Robert Lopez & Kristen Anderson-Lopez
"Daily Battles Motherless Brooklyn — Thom Yorke

MAJOR THREATS REST OF SHORTLIST

"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" Toy Story 4 — Randy Newman
"Letter to My Godfather" The Black Godfather — Chad Hugo & Pharrell Williams
"Stand Up" Harriet — Joshuah Brian Campbell & Cynthia Erivo
"Da Bronx" The Bronx, USA — Paul Williams & Charles Fox
"Speechless" Aladdin — Alan Menken, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul
"A Glass of Soju" Parasite — Bong Joon Ho
"I'm Standing With You" Breakthrough — Diane Warren
"Never Too Late" The Lion King — Elton John & Tim Rice
"Catchy Song" The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part — Dillon Francis, Alaya High, Jon Lajoie & James Rushent
"High Above the Water" Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am — Kathryn Bostic

Best Visual Effects

Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
'Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker'
Courtesy of Lucasfilm
FRONTRUNNERS

The Lion King
The Irishman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
1917
Gemini Man

MAJOR THREATS REST OF SHORTLIST

Avengers: Endgame
Captain Marvel
Terminator: Dark Fate
Alita: Battle Angel
Cats

Source: Hollywood Reporter

OSCAR
Weekend of September 18 - 20, 2020 (IMDb)
Tenet
1.
Tenet
Net: $4.7M Grs: $36.1M
Weeks: 3
The New Mutants
2.
The New Mutants
Net: $1.8M Grs: $17.7M
Weeks: 4
Infidel
3.
Infidel
Net: $1.4M Grs: $1.4M
Weeks: 1
Unhinged
4.
Unhinged
Net: $1.3M Grs: $15.7M
Weeks: 6
The Broken Hearts Gallery
5.
The Broken Hearts Gallery
Net: $0.8M Grs: $2.4M
Weeks: 2
The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run
6.
The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run
Net: $0.2M Grs: $4.2M
Weeks: 6
Bill & Ted Face the Music
7.
Bill & Ted Face the Music
Net: $0.2M Grs: $3.1M
Weeks: 4
Alone
8.
Alone
Net: $0.2M Grs: $0.2M
Weeks: 1
The Personal History of David Copperfield
9.
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Net: $0.2M Grs: $1.7M
Weeks: 4
Words on Bathroom Walls
10.
Words on Bathroom Walls
Net: $0.1M Grs: $2.2M
Weeks: 5
Feinberg Forecast: Pre-Christmas Oscar Standings
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