Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race

Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race

22 Nov 2019 (PT)
OSCAR RACEOSCAR

These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions from screenings, publicly available information release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues, historical considerations how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated, precursor awards some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others and consultations with industry insiders including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters. Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.

Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race

Best Picture

Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race
'Richard Jewell'
Claire Folger/Warner Bros.
FRONTRUNNERS

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Sony
The Irishman Netflix
Parasite Neon
The Two Popes Netflix
Marriage Story Netflix
Joker Warner Bros.
Jojo Rabbit Fox Searchlight
Ford v Ferrari Fox
The Farewell A24
Richard Jewell Warner Bros. NEW

MAJOR THREATS

Just Mercy Warner Bros.
Bombshell Lionsgate
Little Women Sony
Honey Boy Amazon
Rocketman Paramount
Pain and Glory Sony Classics
A Hidden Life Fox Searchlight

POSSIBILITIES

Uncut Gems A24
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Sony
Waves A24
Downton Abbey Focus
Hustlers STX
The Peanut Butter Falcon Roadside
Harriet Focus

LONG SHOTS

Knives Out Lionsgate NEW
Queen & Slim Universal
Dark WatersFocus NEW
Booksmart Annapurna
Judy Roadside
Us Universal
Avengers: Endgame Disney — podcast Kevin Feige

STILL TO SEE

1917 Universal
Cats Universal
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Disney

Best Director

Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race
Bong Joon-ho directing 'Parasite'
Cannes
FRONTRUNNERS

Quentin Tarantino Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho Parasite
Martin Scorsese The Irishman
Noah Baumbach Marriage Story
Todd Phillips Joker

MAJOR THREATS

Clint Eastwood Richard Jewell NEW
Fernando Meirelles The Two Popes
Lulu Wang The Farewell — podcast
Greta Gerwig Little Women — podcast
Taika Waititi Jojo Rabbit
Pedro Almodovar Pain and Glory

POSSIBILITIES

James Mangold Ford v Ferrari
Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie Uncut Gems
Jay Roach Bombshell
Trey Edward Shults Waves
Alma Har'el Honey Boy
Destin Daniel Cretton Just Mercy

LONG SHOTS

Terrence Malick A Hidden Life
Lorene Scafaria Hustlers
Marielle Heller A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Olivia Wilde Booksmart — podcast
Rian Johnson Knives Out NEW
Todd Haynes Dark Waters NEW

STILL TO SEE

J.J. Abrams Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker — podcast
Tom Hooper Cats
Sam Mendes 1917

Best Actor

Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race
Mark Ruffalo in 'Dark Waters'
Courtesy of: Focus Features
FRONTRUNNERS

Joaquin Phoenix Joker
Adam Driver Marriage Story — podcast
Leonardo DiCaprio Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jonathan Pryce The Two Popes — podcast
Paul Wer Hauser Richard Jewell NEW

MAJOR THREATS

Antonio Banderas Pain and Glory
Robert De Niro The Irishman — podcast
Eddie Murphy Dolemite Is My Name — podcast
Adam Sandler Uncut Gems
Taron Egerton Rocketman
Michael B. Jordan Just Mercy — podcast

POSSIBILITIES

Christian Bale Ford v Ferrari
Matt Damon Ford v Ferrari
Robert Pattinson The Lighthouse — podcast
Shia LaBeouf The Peanut Butter Falcon — podcast
Matthew Rhys A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

LONG SHOTS

Edward Norton Motherless Brooklyn
Mark Ruffalo Dark Waters NEW
Daniel Kaluuya Queen & Slim
Roman Griffin Davis Jojo Rabbit
Adam Driver The Report — podcast

Best Actress

Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race
Jodie Turner-Smith in 'Queen & Slim'
Courtesy of Universal Pictures
FRONTRUNNERS

Renee Zellweger Judy — podcast
Charlize Theron Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan Little Women — podcast
Awkwafina The Farewell — podcast

MAJOR THREATS

Cynthia Erivo Harriet
Alfre Woodard Clemency
Lupita Nyong'o Us
Florence Pugh Midsommar

POSSIBILITIES

Felicity Jones The Aeronauts
Elisabeth Moss Her Smell — podcast
Jodie Turner-Smith Queen & Slim
Valerie Pachner A Hidden Life

LONG SHOTS

Camila Morrone Mickey and the Bear
Beanie Feldstein Booksmart
Kaitlyn Dever Booksmart
Mary Kay Place Diane

Best Supporting Actor

Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race
Tracy Letts in 'Ford v Ferrari'
Merrick Morton
FRONTRUNNERS

Brad Pitt Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Al Pacino The Irishman
Anthony Hopkins The Two Popes
Joe Pesci The Irishman
Shia LaBeouf Honey Boy

MAJOR THREATS

Tom Hanks A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood — podcast 2018 & podcast 2019
Sam Rockwell Richard Jewell — podcast NEW
Willem Dafoe The Lighthouse — podcast
Alan Alda Marriage Story
John Lithgow Bombshell
Jamie Foxx Just Mercy

POSSIBILITIES

Timothee Chalamet Little Women — podcast
Tracy Letts Ford v Ferrari
Sterling K. Brown Waves — podcast
Jamie Bell Rocketman
Aldis Hodge Clemency
Leslie Odom, Jr. Harriet — podcast

LONG SHOTS

Robert Downey, Jr. Avengers: Endgame
Taika Waititi Jojo Rabbit
Rob Morgan Just Mercy
Wesley Snipes Dolemite Is My Name
Bill Camp Dark Waters NEW
Billy Eichner The Lion King

Best Supporting Actress

Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race
Lauren 'Lolo' Spencer in 'Give Me Liberty'
Courtesy of Music Box Films
FRONTRUNNERS

Laura Dern Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez Hustlers — podcast
Scarlett Johansson Jojo Rabbit
Kathy Bates Richard Jewell NEW
Shuzhen Zhao The Farewell

MAJOR THREATS

Margot Robbie Bombshell — podcast
Margot Robbie Once Upon a Time in Hollywood — podcast
Nicole Kidman Bombshell — podcast
Florence Pugh Little Women
Julia Butters Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

POSSIBILITIES

Annette Bening The Report
Maggie Smith Downton Abbey
Taylor Russell Waves
Thomasin McKenzie Jojo Rabbit — podcast
Da'Vine Joy Randolph Dolemite Is My Name

LONG SHOTS

Lauren 'Lolo' Spencer Give Me Liberty
Meryl Streep Little Women — podcast
Janelle Monae Harriet
Penelope Cruz Pain and Glory
Cho Yeo-jeong Parasite NEW

Best Adapted Screenplay

Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race
'A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood'
Lacey Terrell/Sony
FRONTRUNNERS

The Two Popes Anthony McCarten
The Irishman Steven Zaillian
Joker Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
Jojo Rabbit Taika Waititi
Little Women Greta Gerwig — podcast

MAJOR THREATS

Richard Jewell Billy Ray NEW
Just Mercy Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham
Hustlers Lorene Scafaria
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster

POSSIBILITIES

Dark Waters Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa NEW
Toy Story 4 Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton
Downton Abbey Julian Fellowes — podcast
Judy Tom Edge

LONG SHOTS

The Laundromat Scott Z. Burns
Motherless Brooklyn Edward Norton
Avengers: Endgame Christopher Markus & Stephen McFeely

STILL TO SEE

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker J.J. Abrams & Chris Terrio — podcast Abrams

Best Original Screenplay

Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race
'Knives Out'
FRONTRUNNERS

Parasite Bong Joon-ho & Jin Won Han
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Quentin Tarantino
Marriage Story Noah Baumbach
The FarewellLulu Wang — podcast
Honey Boy Shia LaBeouf — podcast

MAJOR THREATS

Dolemite Is My Name Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski
Bombshell Charles Randolph
Us Jordan Peele — podcast Peele
Booksmart Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman
Pain and Glory Pedro Almodovar — podcast Almodovar
Waves Trey Edward Shults

POSSIBILITIES

Uncut Gems Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie
Knives Out Rian Johnson NEW
Queen & Slim Lena Waithe — podcast
The Lighthouse Max Eggers & Robert Eggers
Ford v Ferrari Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller
The Peanut Butter Falcon Tyler Nilson & Michael Schwartz

LONG SHOTS

The Last Black Man in San Francisco Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot
The Report Scott Z. Burns
Midsommar Ari Aster
A Hidden Life Terrence Malick
Harriet Gregory Allen Howard & Kasi Lemmons
Rocketman Lee Hall

STILL TO SEE

1917 Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns

Best Animated Feature

Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race
'Klaus'
Courtesy of Netflix
FRONTRUNNERS

Toy Story 4 Pixar
Frozen 2 Disney
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Dreamworks
I Lost My Body Netflix
Klaus Netflix

MAJOR THREATS

Funan GKIDS
Weathering With You GKIDS

POSSIBILITIES

Abominable Universal
Missing Link United Artists Releasing

LONG SHOTS

The Secret Life of Pets 2 Universal
The Angry Birds Movie 2 Sony Pictures Releasing

Best Documentary Feature

Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race
'5B'
Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival
FRONTRUNNERS

American Factory Netflix
Apollo 11 Neon
One Child Nation Amazon
For Sama PBS
The Kingmaker Showtime

MAJOR THREATS REST OF SHORTLIST

The Cave National Geographic
The Biggest Little Farm Neon
Sea of Shadows National Geographic
Knock Down the House Netflix
Diego Maradona HBO
Ask Dr. Ruth Hulu/Magnolia
Maiden Sony Classics
Prosecuting Evil: The Extraordinary World of Ben Ferencz Vertical
5B RYOT NEW
Mike Wallace Is Here Magnolia

POSSIBILITIES

The Great Hack Netflix
Cunningham Magnolia
Tell Me Who I Am Netflix
Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am Magnolia
David Crosby: Remember My Name Sony Classics

LONG SHOTS

American Dharma Utopia
The Black Godfather Netflix
What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael Juno
Love, Antosha self-distributed

STILL TO SEE

Advocate Film Movement
After Parkland still seeking US distribution
The All-Americans Abramorama
The Apollo HBO
Aquarela Sony Classics
At the Heart of Gold: Inside the USA Gymnastics Scandal HBO
Black Mother Grasshopper
Blue Note Records: Beyond the Notes Eagle Rock
Bully. Coward. Victim. The Story of Roy Cohn HBO
Citizen K Greenwich Entertainment
Cold Case Hammarskjold Magnolia
Don't Be Nice Juno
Echo in the Canyon Greenwich Entertainment
The Edge of Democracy Netflix
The Elephant Queen Apple
Emanuel SDG
Ernie & Joe: Crisis Cops HBO
#Female Pleasure Abramorama
Fiddlin' Utopia
The Game Changers ReFuel Productions
Gay Chorus Deep South MTV
The Gift: The Journey of Johnny Cash YouTube
Everybody's Everything Gunpowder & Sky
Hail Satan? Magnolia
Honeyland Neon
Hope Frozen still seeking U.S. distribution
The Hottest August Grasshopper
Jim Allison: Breakthrough Dada
Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice Greenwich Entertainment
Making Waves: The Art of Cinematic Sound still seeking U.S. distribution
Midnight Family 1091 Media
Midnight Traveler Oscilloscope
Miles Davis: Birth of the Cool Abramorama
Oliver Sacks: His Own Life still seeking U.S. distribution
On the President's Orders PBS
The Proposal Oscilloscope
Raise Hell: The Life and Times of Molly Ivins Magnolia
Roll Red Roll PBS
Running With Beto HBO
The Serengeti Rules Abramorama
They Shall Not Grow Old Warner Bros.
Western Stars Warner Bros.
Where's My Roy Cohn? Sony Classics
Who Will Write Our History? Abramorama

Best International Feature

Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race
'The Traitor' Italy
Courtesy of TIFF
FRONTRUNNERS

Parasite South Korea
Pain and Glory Spain
Les Miserables France
A White, White Day Iceland
Invisible Life Brazil

MAJOR THREATS REST OF SHORTLIST

Corpus Christi Poland
Instinct Netherlands
Tel Aviv on Fire Luxembourg
Papicha Algeria
The Traitor Italy

POSSIBILITIES

Atlantics Senegal
Monos Colombia
Gully Boy India
Those Who Remained Hungary
Our Mothers Belgium
It Must Be Heaven Palestine
Honeyland North Macedonia
Incitement Israel
System Crasher Germany
And Then We Danced Sweden
Beanpole Russia

LONG SHOTS

Stupid Young Heart Finland
Weathering with You Japan
Zana Kosovo
Out Stealing Horses Norway
Queen of Hearts Denmark
The Whistlers Romania
The Chambermaid Mexico
Ne Zha China
The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind United Kingdom
Let There Be Light Slovakia
The Painted Bird Czech Republic

Best Cinematography

Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race
'The Painted Bird'
Courtesy of Venice International Film Festival
FRONTRUNNERS

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Robert Richardson
The Irishman Rodrigo Prieto
Joker Lawrence Sher
The Two Popes Cesar Charlone
Parasite Hong Kyung-Po

MAJOR THREATS

The Lighthouse Jarin Blaschke
Little Women Yorick Le Saux
Marriage Story Robbie Ryan
A Hidden Life Jörg Widmer
Ford v Ferrari Phedon Papamichael
The Painted Bird Vladimir Smutny NEW

POSSIBILITIES

Uncut Gems Darius Khondji
Jojo Rabbit Mihai Mălaimare Jr.
Waves Drew Daniels
The Lion King Caleb Deschanel
Avengers: Endgame Trent Oplach

LONG SHOTS

The Aeronauts George Steel
Bombshell Barry Ackroyd
Rocketman George Richmond
Harriet John Toll
Dark WatersEd Lachman

STILL TO COME

1917 Roger Deakins
Ad Astra Hoyte van Hoytema
Gemini Man Dion Beebe
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Dan Mindel

Source: Hollywood Reporter

OSCAR RACEOSCAR
Weekend of September 11 - 13, 2020 (IMDb)
Tenet
1.
Tenet
Net: $6.7M Grs: $29.5M
Weeks: 2
The New Mutants
2.
The New Mutants
Net: $2.1M Grs: $15.3M
Weeks: 3
Unhinged
3.
Unhinged
Net: $1.5M Grs: $13.8M
Weeks: 5
The Broken Hearts Gallery
4.
The Broken Hearts Gallery
Net: $1.1M Grs: $1.1M
Weeks: 1
Bill & Ted Face the Music
5.
Bill & Ted Face the Music
Net: $0.3M Grs: $2.7M
Weeks: 3
Words on Bathroom Walls
6.
Words on Bathroom Walls
Net: $0.2M Grs: $1.9M
Weeks: 4
The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run
7.
The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run
Net: $0.2M Grs: $4.0M
Weeks: 5
The Personal History of David Copperfield
8.
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Net: $0.2M Grs: $1.4M
Weeks: 3
Train to Busan 2
9.
Train to Busan 2
Net: $0.1M Grs: $0.9M
Weeks: 6
Cut Throat City
10.
Cut Throat City
Net: $0.0M Grs: $0.7M
Weeks: 4
Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race
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